Where We Stand in Conflict: Sharing the 2025 Global Peace Index

I recently participated in a webinar where The Institute for Economics & Peace presented their 2025 Global Peace Index findings: Militarization, Media, Geopolitics, and the Increase of Conflict Risk: Launch of the 2025 Global Peace Index. The data is staggering and disheartening, yet it is what it is and what I hope it does is motivate us to find solutions. As you know, I'm the mom of 5—one who served in 2 wars—and the grandmother of 4. I want to leave them with a world where they can thrive, not just survive.

But here's the thing about having access to this research: if we're all aware of these trends, we can do things differently. We have to act—work together—but first we need to look at the big picture. The data isn't just information; it's a call to action. When we understand the scope and urgency of what we're facing, we can't pretend we don't know better. We have the knowledge, the tools, and the examples of what works. What we need now is to decide how each of us can act on what the evidence is telling us.

The webinar confirmed what many of us in the conflict resolution field have been seeing: for eight straight years, the world has been getting less peaceful. This isn't a temporary blip—it's a sustained trend that represents a fundamental reversal of post-WWII progress toward global stability.

The Unraveling of Progress

Here's what eight years of declining peace looks like in practice: the world became less peaceful for the 13th time in the last 17 years, with 59 active conflicts involving states—the highest number since World War II. We've gone from a world that was slowly learning to resolve disputes peacefully to one where conflicts multiply faster than we can solve them.

But what really caught my attention during the webinar was learning how the way conflicts end has fundamentally changed. In the 1970s, nearly half of conflicts ended with clear victories and 23% ended through peace agreements—messy perhaps, but decisive. Today? Only 9% end in clear victories and just 4% through negotiated settlements.

This represents a collapse of our conflict resolution systems. Instead of solving problems, we're creating a world full of frozen conflicts that can reignite at any moment. More conflicts are simply... lingering, becoming frozen in a state of low-level hostility.

What Creates Peace vs. What Fuels Conflict

The research reveals clear patterns about what conditions correlate with peace and which drive societies toward conflict. Countries with strong institutions, inclusive governance, low corruption, and equitable economic opportunities consistently rank as more peaceful. These aren't abstract concepts—they're measurable conditions that create what researchers call "Positive Peace."

On the flip side, the data shows that economic stress, youth unemployment, debt burden, and cuts to essential services are strong predictors of instability. When governments spend over 42% of their revenue just servicing debt (as many developing countries do), there's nothing left for education, healthcare, or job creation—the investments that prevent conflicts from taking root.

This is why recent policy changes are so concerning from a conflict prevention perspective.

The Aid Crisis Making Things Worse

The human impact, the effect on real people – mostly the most vulnerable- women and children, becomes even more concerning when we consider recent policy changes that directly undermine peace-building conditions. The U.S. recently cut approximately 83% of its USAID programs to sub-Saharan Africa—the region that has been the largest recipient of development aid over the past decade. Even the most optimistic estimates show a 50% reduction from 2023 levels.

This isn't just about foreign aid—it's about removing the exact supports that research shows prevent conflicts. When health centers close, educational programs end, and clean water projects stop, you create the conditions of economic stress, youth hopelessness, and institutional weakness that the data shows lead to instability. We're essentially withdrawing conflict prevention precisely when fragile states need it most.

The timing couldn't be worse. The report shows that developing countries now spend an average of 42% of government revenue on debt servicing, leaving little for the social investments that build resilience. When international support disappears at the same time, you have a perfect storm for the kind of instability we're seeing increase globally.

The Human Cost We Don't See

The webinar data revealed something that I didn’t realize about how we pay attention to suffering. Civilian deaths in high-income countries receive 100 times more media coverage than similar deaths in low-income countries. This isn't just a media bias issue—it's about which human lives we collectively decide matter enough to notice.

In 2024, there were 17 countries with over 1,000 internal conflict deaths—the highest since 1999. Yet many of these conflicts barely register in our daily news feeds. Behind these statistics are over 122 million people now forcibly displaced—185% more than when the Global Peace Index began in 2008. That's entire generations growing up in refugee camps, missing school, living with trauma that will shape their entire lives.

The Impact on Women and Children

While the overall statistics are sobering, the impact on the world's most vulnerable populations tells an even more urgent story. Women and children bear a disproportionate burden when societies become less peaceful, and the eight-year decline has created a humanitarian crisis that extends far beyond battlefields.

Children are paying the highest price: An estimated 468 million children now live in conflict-affected areas—that's nearly 1 in 6 children worldwide. These children are 2.5 times more likely to be out of school than their peers in peaceful regions, with conflict being the primary driver of the global education crisis. When combined with the recent USAID cuts that have closed schools and health centers across sub-Saharan Africa, we're creating a generation that will grow up without the basic building blocks of stable societies.

Women face escalating risks: In conflict zones, reports of gender-based violence increase by up to 300%, while women's economic opportunities disappear as markets close and normal social structures break down. The 122 million displaced people globally include millions of women who have lost not just their homes, but their livelihoods, support networks, and often their safety.

Perhaps most tragically, children born in the least peaceful countries are 60 times more likely to die before age fivecompared to those born in the most peaceful nations. This isn't just about direct violence—it's about the collapse of health systems, nutrition programs, and basic infrastructure that the USAID cuts are accelerating.

The Economic Reality That Touches Everyone

Here's where this sustained decline becomes personal for all of us: violence cost the global economy $19.97 trillion in 2024—that's $2,455 for every person on the planet, equivalent to 11.6% of everything the world produces.

Consider this: in regions experiencing the highest levels of violence, governments spend an average of 27.8% of their GDP dealing with violence and its consequences. For the most peaceful countries, it's just 2.5%. That difference represents resources that could go toward education, healthcare, infrastructure, and economic opportunity—the building blocks of societies where people can thrive.

Meanwhile, spending on peacebuilding and peacekeeping? Just 0.52% of total military spending—and that percentage is falling. We're spending 200 times more on preparing for conflict than on preventing it.

The Technology Paradox

During the webinar, one of the most striking findings was about information flow. While access to information has exploded (telecommunications infrastructure improved by 36% over the past decade), press freedom and information quality have both declined significantly.

We have more ways to communicate than ever before, yet we're struggling to have productive conversations about the challenges we face. We have more access to information, but less trust in its accuracy. This represents a fundamental breakdown in how we share knowledge and build understanding at precisely the moment we need it most.

Global Militarization and Fragmentation

The webinar highlighted alarming trends in global militarization:

• Military spending hit a record $2.7 trillion in 2024 (9% increase in one year)

• 106 countries deteriorated on militarization in the past two years

• 84 countries increased military expenditure as a percentage of GDP

At the same time, we're seeing what researchers call "geopolitical fragmentation"—the breakdown of cooperative international systems. The number of globally influential countries has increased from 6 in the 1970s to 34 in 2023, creating competing spheres of influence rather than collaborative problem-solving.

And What About the United States?

The United States ranks 128th out of 163 countries on the Global Peace Index—placing it in the bottom third globally and making it the least peaceful country among major Western democracies. This ranking reflects several troubling trends: the US has the second-highest military expenditure as a percentage of GDP globally (behind only North Korea), spends over $949 billion annually on defense, and maintains the world's second-largest military capability index.

Perhaps most concerning, the US showed no change in its peace ranking over the past year, suggesting a stagnation in addressing the underlying issues that contribute to its low ranking. These include high levels of violent crime, significant weapons exports, substantial military involvement in conflicts worldwide, and internal social tensions. The recent cuts to USAID programs represent a shift away from the very conflict prevention strategies that research shows work in building sustainable peace.

What Works: Learning from Peaceful Countries

Despite eight years of declining peace, the webinar wasn't entirely discouraging. South America was the only region to improve in peacefulness last year, proving that positive change is possible even in a deteriorating global environment.

More importantly, the most peaceful countries—Iceland, Ireland, New Zealand, Austria, and Switzerland—maintain their positions through specific, measurable conditions that we can learn from:

Strong Institutions: These countries have transparent, accountable governments with low corruption levels and effective rule of law. Citizens trust that institutions will respond to their needs fairly.

Inclusive Governance: Political systems that provide meaningful representation and peaceful channels for addressing grievances. People feel heard and have stake in the system.

Economic Opportunity: Low youth unemployment, equitable access to education and healthcare, and economies that provide pathways to prosperity for ordinary citizens.

Social Cohesion: High levels of social trust, tolerance for diversity, and shared civic values that bind communities together across differences.

Conflict Resolution Mechanisms: Robust systems for addressing disputes before they escalate, from local mediation to international diplomacy.

Investment in Peace Infrastructure: These countries consistently fund education, social services, and conflict prevention rather than just military responses.

Notice what's not on this list: military dominance, wealth inequality, or suppression of dissent. The most peaceful countries achieve stability through building the conditions that make people want to participate constructively in society.

Why This Matters Now

As someone who works in conflict resolution daily, I know that most people genuinely want harmonious relationships—in their families, workplaces, and communities. The same is true at the global level. The challenge isn't that people want conflict; it's that we often lack the tools and systems to address disagreements before they escalate.

The eight-year trend in declining peace, combined with cuts to development aid and rising global tensions, reminds us that peace isn't something that just happens—it's something we have to actively build and maintain. Whether we're talking about a workplace dispute, a family disagreement, or international tensions, the same principle applies: investing in understanding, communication, and collaborative problem-solving early costs far less than dealing with the consequences of escalated conflict later.

The webinar data was sobering, but it also clarified something important: we still have choices. The most peaceful countries prove that different approaches work. We know what conditions create stability and what conditions undermine it. When we cut aid programs, ignore economic inequality, or invest only in military responses, we're choosing the path that leads to more conflict.

Because in the end, peace isn't just the absence of conflict—it's the presence of conditions that allow all of us to thrive. For eight years, we've been moving away from those conditions. The question now is whether we have the collective will to invest in what actually works.

Read the Report Here: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Global-Peace-Index-2025-web.pdf 

Check out Dr. Scilla Elworthy’s book, “The Business Plan for Peace: Building a World Without War” 

What struck you most about these findings? How do we apply what we know about peaceful societies to start reversing this troubling trend in our own communities and spheres of influence?